Saturday, November 22, 2008

NCAA Week 12

3) I don't know why the LSU point spreads make for nice betting opportunities this year - but I think that there is another one this week.

I have heard how Coach Houston Nutt knows how to win at Baton Rouge. I have heard how Ole Miss plays LSU tough and that they have the upset at the Swamp already this season. LSU is coming off the biggest comeback in school history, and fortunately for the Tigers - that comeback didn't fall short. That was the trap game. This is not.

The Tigers haven't exactly been super ats this year. 2-7 overall and 0-6 at home - Ugh!

Both Jevan Sneed for Ole Miss and Jarrett Lee of LSU have been turnover prone this season. They are young QBs that can and do make mistakes.

Statisitically speaking, these teams really mirror each other. Balanced offenses. Decent defenses.

Maybe I am crazy, but what this comes down to for me is simple. LSU has beaten every team it was supposed to beat this year. They are at home, and have some real momentum off of last week. (I am not sure that 59-0 over La.-Monroe doesn't count as momentum, but we shall see.)

Take the Bayou Bengals. LSU -3.5

2) Tennessee is in shambles right now.

They hobble into this game with Vandy off a home loss to Wyoming? Seriously. They have scored 23 points total in the last 3 games. They haven't won a game on the road this year.

Both teams have good defenses - and both have less than stellar offenses.

Vanderbilt has been a pleasant surprise this season. After starting 5-0, they did drop 4 straight. I think that you can excuse two of those losses to Florida and Georgia. Last week they had a nice road win over Kentucky.

Senior day and a chance to beat the home state rival while they are down - I like the Commodores.

Vanderbilt -3.5

Just two this week! Good Luck!!!

Saturday, November 15, 2008

NCAA Week 11

4) The smart person in me would suggest that both Michigan and Northwestern should be on my "Banned List." They have done some damage my overall record - and with two of my no. 1 picks none-the-less.

I guess I am a slow learner.

I saw a Michigan team that started to wake up last week and Minnesota looked helpless on offense.

I have no stats to cite for this one. I have no reason to compare the Wildcats and Wolverines vs. the spread, at home, as underdogs - nothing.

This is just a case of one team getting better and one getting worse. Ohio St. beat up Northwestern last week. I expect Michigan to continue the beating.

In an Early Start, take Michigan -3.5

3) Few teams this season have looked as good overall as Texas. They are 7-3 ats this season. That includes 3-1 on the road ats. The average score of their games turns out to be 44-21. They do give up points to good offenses, but it is not via the run game. As Nebraska showed last week, if you control the run game of Kansas - you will beat them. Texas does stop the run.

Todd Reesing is a very good QB, with an OL that is leaving him in bad spots. He is hurting this week. I am sure he will play and play his butt off - but too many more hits and you may see the no. 2 QB for KU.

Kansas gives up almost 400 ypg on defense. They haven't come close to stopping anyone with a good offense, and those two WRs for Colt McCoy are gonna continue the trend.

By the way, I like the OVER 67 in this one too.

In another Early Start, Hook Em Horns. Take Texas -13.5.

2) Robert Griffith has changed the perception of Baylor football this season. It is one of hope, excitement, and yeah - a bit more winning. They have been favored in a few games this season - and have actually taken a couple of teams to the Woodshed. Ironically enough - while they are 3-7 overall, they are 6-3 ats.

The Wrecking Crew defense for aTm is hurting. They are ranked 109th overall. (Sound familiar NU fans?) What puzzles me about the Aggies is how they are not a good running team right now. Their QB Johnson even attempted 51 passes in a game? Has Mike Sherman been chatting with Bill Callahan?

The great stat regarding this game is Baylors +1 per game TO margin. aTm is at -0.4.

Baylor has been waiting to bust out of their difficult schedule. Here is that game.

The Baylor Bears -8 in an afternoon start.

1) The South's Oldest Rivalry is one that most would not guess - but Georgia vs. Auburn is a big one. The Auburn folk's are calling this and the next game against Bama "Amen Corner". Forgive the pun - but they and that horrible offense don't have a prayer.

Georgia is only 3-6 ats this year - but 2-2 on the road.

Auburn is 1-8 ats this year - and just 1-4 at home.

The one thing that Auburn has going for it this season is it's defense has hung in there, ranking 26th in ypg and giving up only 16 ppg.

The same thing I said about the Tigers a couple of weeks ago applies yet today. Kodi Burns is a RB playing QB. He is not a good passer. Auburn has the worst Red Zone offense in College Football.

I have picked on Georgia twice this year - vs. Alabama and Florida. This time, I am going with them.

33 ppg and 437 ypg of offense with the big three they have will be enough this game. Big plays will do in Auburn.

The Georgia Bulldogs will cover -10 in game that may be close for a while. This is an early start too.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

NCAA - Week 10

I was starting to fall into the trap of following too many games, and making too many picks. So, I am back with just 3 this week. Let's get too em...

3) Since it is Nick Saban's return to LSU, and Bama is no. 1, I can't lay off this game. I have been on the Tide all season. Maybe not with picks, but for sure in the big games. I truly think that they have the best OL/DL combo in football. John Parker Wilson has taken great care of the ball - and managed the offense very well. They have offensive balance. They stop the run.
And they are 6-3 ats this year - 4-0 on the road ats!

You can not ignore LSU's games against Georgia and Florida. Jarett Lee is just a Red. Frosh at QB, and he has turned the ball over enough to get the boobirds out at home last week against Tulane. Did I mention LSU is 2-5 ats and 0-4 at home!

I know, the atmosphere will be awesome. The LSU crowd will be amazing. What else is new. The players don't care about Saban, the coaching staff doesn't care about Saban - but Bama does.

Take the "Really Ahead of Schedule" Alabama CRIMSON TIDE -3 to cover in this afternoon start.

2) There is a team in Louisiana that has made plenty of folks happy with their play and their ability to cover the spread...yes, those Ragin Cajuns are back on my picks again.

I could go over what Lafayette's QB has done again - or I could mention they are 7-1 ats and UTEP is 2-6.

I just know that the Cajuns are solid this week. They may even get behind early, as UTEP is great out of the blocks. Lafayette is a very under-rated small school. Tyrell Fenroy is a stud at RB. QB Desormeaux is healthy after a week off against Arkansas St. two weeks ago. 500 ypg of offense.

This is a team at 4-0 in the Sun Belt - looking for a conference title.

Go with the Louisiana-Lafayette RAGIN' CAJUNS -9 in an evening game way off the National Radar.

1) The Little Brown Jug is on the line in Minneapolis and this game has been crazy in recent years. Last week, both Michigan and Minnesota had bad losses - but one team gets to stay at home to recover.

Michigan has gotten more out of it's RB spot in recent weeks but I don't see that as enough. They haven't shown much in the other games against bowl-bound teams Lost by 2 to Utah, Lost by 18 to Notre Dame, Lost by 25 to Illinois, Lost by 29 to Penn St, Lost by 14 to Michigan St...

Did you even know that the Gophers were 7-2 and could get to 10 wins?
Did you know that QB Adam Weber is throwing for almost 250 ypg with 11 TDs and only 4 Ints?
Did you know that Minnesota is 2nd in the country in TO margin at 1.67?

Minnesota is 6-2 ats (2-2 @ home). Michigan is 1-8 ats (0-3 on the road.)

In an early start, go with the Minnesota GOLDEN GOPHERS -7.5.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

NCAA - Week 10

While last week was painful. I can understand Northwestern not hitting based upon losing the TO battle 4-0. But I have no explanation for Rutgers performance! All I know is that the banned list will have a new addition.

Please note - it is always smart to buy up or down those half-points to cover your investment. Don't play the -7's or +3's if you can help it. If you have a sheet - then you are more likely locked in. Do your best with it.

No. 4 We in Nebraska know all too well when a coach loses a team. The press starts to even ask about whether or not the team has "quit". The coaches have to answer that type of question as well.

I see this going on in Auburn with Tommy Tuberville right now.

Last Thursday Night - the first half against West Virginia sorted looked like maybe Auburn had "Circled the Wagons" and found a way to play - but when Auburn was forced to pass - they really couldn't. This team has spent about 3+ years trying to be a West Coast type team - and now they are leaning on a power running game with the hopes of controlling the clock. The Mountaineers figured it out.

As will be mentioned more later, Ole Miss got a big win for Houston Nutt. I also think that they got some confidence. QB Jevon Snead has not been super this year, but he has faced a brutal schedule - and he QB'd that win at the Swamp for the Rebels. A comback win none-the-less.

Snead has kinda rough about throwing Int's this year - 11 so far, and Ole Miss has played a lot of close games. I say no problem this Saturday.

Take the Mississippi Rebels -6 and if you don't know about tailgating and such at Ole Miss - check it out. The sights are nice!

No. 3 The Big 12's battle for the cellar continues this week as 4-4 Colorado visits 3-5 Texas A&M. Kyle Field will be sold out as usual. The 12th Man will be as Loud as usual. I think that they will have much to cheer about this Saturday. aTm is on a bit of an upswing right now - and Colorado is headed the other way.

Third downs have been bad for the Buffs - they are at 38.2% conversions while the Aggies are actually up to 51.8% for the season.

I was impressed by aTm's win at Ames last week. Their offense is starting to get into gear.

Look for Mike Sherman to get a nice home win - and the B12 North to suffer another loss to the South as the Texas A&M Aggies cover the -4. Gig Em.

No. 2 I can't say that I have had the pleasure of attending the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville - but what a great game that is shaping up to be this week. 7-1 Georgia has it's trio of Frosh WR A.J. Green, Soph RB Knowshown Moreno, and Jr. QB Matt Stafford. Florida of course has Do it all WR Percy Harvin, and of course that Tebow guy with his big bronze trophy.

Here is why we like this game. The Dogs have a young OL and FB injury problems. Georgia is 3-4 ats, while Florida is 5-2. Georgia is one of the more heavily penalized teams this year so far. (76-619 yds as compared to 57-442 yds for Florida.) The Gators have 4 Returns for TDs already. Florida has pummeled LSU and Kentucky in the past two weeks by a combined score of 114-26. The average score for the Gators is 42-12.

I see payback for Florida this week. Georgia may not quite be as good as advertized - despite their win at LSU.

Take the Florida Gators -6, and have a gin and tonic for me!

No. 1 Tulsa has been a machine this season. 8-0 overall and 6-1 ats. There average score is 56-26. They run for over 6 yds per carry. The Golden Children have a 32-9 TD to Int rate. They convert 61% on 3rd downs. The stats go on and on.

Last week was a huge game for Bobby Petrino as Houston Nutt returned with Ole Miss and beat the Hogs in Fayetteville. Casey Dick has not been the QB that Arkansas had hoped - of course he has a little different supporting cast then last year. (Losing McFadden and Jones is a lot to replace.)

I smell letdown. (If a 3-5 team really can have a letdown.) I see a team that hasn't scored more than 28 pts in any game (and that happened in the first two weeks this season,) vs. one who hasn't scored less than 37. The Razorbacks give up 32 ppg normally. This may go over the 77 listed - but Tulsa will have the majority.

Take the Tulsa Golden Hurricane -6.5. Let's hope that Petrino doesn't decide to quit if he loses this game too.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Week 9 - NCAA

No. 5 David Letterman's alma mater, the Ball State Cardinals, has a really good football team this season. Those of you Husker fans may well remember being outplayed in Lincoln by this team last year. QB Nate Davis is a stud. The defense is inproved. RB MiQuale Lewis is going to get paid next year too. They took a big hit in losing WR Dante Love for the season a few weeks ago. But even so - they just keep covering.

How about 7-0 on the season, and 6-0 ats! Very nice!

Eastern Michigan has much to offer this week - in terms of looking ripe for a woodshed performance. EM is 2-6 overall, and 1-6 ats. They have injury issues. The starting QB Andy Schmidt has missed most of practice this week. Their no. 2 RB is hurting. They played pretty well at home last week and still lost at home to Akron. They have the worst run defense in the MAC - giving up about 225 a game. Ball St. averages almost 200 ypg on the ground.

One strange note on this is that the line opened at 27, and has fallen. I don't know why, but fine by me.

This is Ball St.'s biggest line yet at 24.5. You may want to buy a point here if you can and take no. 134 Ball St. at -23.5.

No. 4 People who know me have heard me suggest that Bama may be the Champ by the time the BCmesS is done. I will tell you this - I haven't changed my mind about that yet. I know, the Tide has struggled in their last two games at home. Kentucky isn't terrible. Ole Miss beat Florida in the Swamp. (And Houston Nutt knows how to cheat with the best of em.)

So we have a huge rivalry game this week in Knoxsville, as Bama enters Neyland Stadium as a 5 point favorite. (It is a big rivalry, no question about that - and normally I don't like these games.)

Bama is 7-0 overall and 4-3 ats. Tennessee is 3-4 overall and 3-4 ats. Really nothing there. However, Bama is 3-0 ats on the road or on a neutral site. Tennessee is 1-3 ats @ home.

I don't need much analysis to simply say Bama is gonna roll in this one. This is the type of game that they show up and play well for. The youth on this team really seems to be motivated in the big games. They are averaging 40+ pts away from home. The Vols can't score against good defenses - 6 to Florida, 12 @ Auburn, 14 @ Georgia. I can give you a whole lot more - but this one is simple:

Take no. 145 Alabama CRIMSON TIDE -5 and you don't have to buy squat for points.

No. 3 It is wierd to me that I haven't had Oklahoma involved in a game yet this season. I know they are solid. If they played Texas 100 times I would say 50-50 would be their record. They are not out of the Big 12 or the BCS race at all. They are 4-2 ats - although the last two games they haven't covered.

It is funny how a guy who gets beat by Texas and then comes back and goes 36-53 for 468 yds and 3TDs the next week and no one says a word about him? Sam Bradford is a machine.

Now the Sooners go to visit Grimace and the Purple Fraud - better known as Kansas St. I have no love for Josh Freeman, and would like to see him lose every game. The Kittens are 3-3 ats and have covered their last two, against aTm and Colorado. I say big deal.

The only two legit teams KSU has played against (Louisville and TTech) resulted in bad losses.

This one will be worse. Oklahoma knows how to drop the hammer on lesser teams, and they will here. Boomer Sooner.

The play is no. 159 Oklahoma SOONERS -19. Buy if you want, I say you are giving up easy money.

No. 2 This one pains me. Steve Pedersen managed to really make a mess in Lincoln. He got paid to leave, and immediately got his old job back at Pitt. I took Pitt once and went against them once this season. I am 0-2 on Pitt. They were on my original Banned List.

Rutgers travels to Pittsburgh this weekend. Digustingly enough, Pitt has worked their way back into the Top 25 at no. 17. They are 5-1. Pitt has a nice 1-2 punch right now with Bill Stull at QB and LeSean "Shady" McCoy at TB. They are going at about 400 ypg and 30 ppg in their 5-game winning streak.

The Scarlet Knights are not the same path. They are 2-5. QB Mike Teel has over twice as many Ints as TDs. Rutgers finally beat a D-I team this year by beating a short-handed UConn last week. Coach Schiano should have left two years ago when the State University of New Jersey was hot. The only thing they have done well this season is to play run defense. They have scored no more than 17 points in any game this season against a D-1 team.

I say Pittsburgh hit it's stride at South Florida, and is rolling. I say Rutgers is a shadow of itself from the last two seasons.

No. 126 Pittsburgh PANTHERS -10 is good to go. I guess you could buy the 1/2, but I don't believe it necessary.

No. 1 I was going to put Northwestern in the picks last week - and waffled, because for some reason I thought 3 was enough. So I told a guy about them anyway - and they covered just fine. The Wildcats are 6-1 overall, and 3-3 ats. The home loss against Michigan St. was misleading due to the 3 TO. Northwestern outgained the Spartans by 150 yds that game.

The Wildcats have road wins @ Duke and @ Iowa - and I promise you both of those teams are significantly better than Indiana.

The Hoosiers are in a tailspin right now. They are 1-5 ats, including 5 losses in a row. They have been outscored 100-22 in their last 2 games, including Iowa at home by 45-9. Antoine Randle-El and James Hardy could come back to school and this one still wouldn't be close.

Tyrell Sutton and no. 115 Northwestern WILDCATS -9 are my Lock this Week.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Big Board - (as of 07Nov08)

I began this little selection adventure in Week 4 of the NCAA's / Week 3 of the NFL.
Understand, these are the picks - based upon what the bets actually did. In many of these situations there were points bought, when it made since. Some of these were moneyline selections as well. As I have learned - I am trying to suggest when to buy points and when it isn't necessary.

Here is the big board as of now:

Week 3: NCAA 2-1 NFL 1-2 Overall 3-3 50%

Week 4: NCAA 2-2 NFL 2-1 Week 4-3
Overall 7-6 54%

Week 5: NCAA 2-1 NFL 3-1 Week 5-2
Overall 12-8 60%

Week 6: NCAA 4-1 NFL 2-1 Week 6-2
Overall 18-10 64%

Week 7: NCAA 4-1 NFL 3-0 Week 7-1
Overall 25-11 69%

Week 8: NCAA 4-0 NFL 3-1 Week 7-1
Overall 32-12 73%

Week 9: NCAA 2-3 NFL 2-0 Week 4-3
Overall 36-15 71%

Week 10: NCAA 3-1 (NFL picks were on the Moneyline.)
Overall 39-16 71%

Saturday, October 18, 2008

NFL Week 7

No. 3 Sometimes the phrase I heard on FOX SPORTS Steve Czaben's Radio Show "Run to the Stink" really fits. It comes down to, when everthing points to one team in a big line situation - that you should go with the team that makes no sense.

I don't think that that applies this week with the Seattle / Tampa Bay game this week. The Bucs are hosting a team that has stunk it up their previous two trips to the East Coast, (Wk 1 34-10 loss @ the Bills and Wk 4 44-6 loss @ the Giants. The Seahags are w/o Matt Hasselback this week as well. Seattle's scoring in the 3 non-NFC West games is 33 to 105. That is an avg. defeat of about 33-11.

Seneca Wallace is starting, but dinged up. Jeff Garcia is married to a former Playboy Centerfold. EDGE GARCIA!!!

The Bucs are 4-2 overall and have won the last 5 ats.

I like no. 430 Tampa Bay BUCCANEERS -10.5 over Seattle on Sunday Night.

No. 2 It is not often that I am going to recommend an Over/Under. It will be even less frequently that I recommend it on an NFL Game - but here it is...

First of all - Minnesota is taken off the Banned List this week. I want to use the Bears / Vikings game. The Vikes are 2-4 ats. They have been the luckiest team in football the last two weeks, and while they should have been 0-2, those games went the other way. Adrian Peterson has not been performing as we expected this year - and I just think that Gus Frerrotte isn't the answer. They have few playmakers on offense, and that will catch up with them. Minnesota hasn't scored more than 2 offense TD's in any game this season.

The Bears are playing just their 3rd home game this week. They are 1-1 at home, and 3-2-1 ats overall. Orton is managing the game well - and while Frerrotte isn't really making big plays, I think Orton can.

Now for a quick trend summary. Chicago has been over both home games (and 17 of their last 21 at home - but they have been under all four on the road). Minnesota has been over 3 of 6 games - all on the road.

In this battle of 3-3 teams, we like no. 402 Chicago BEARS -2.5 and parlay the OVER 38 (Buy that 1/2 point if you can - because I think that this is at -3 everywhere.)

No. 1 My wife is a big Colts fan. She will be happy to know that I don't know how anyone can stare at this game and not go - um Peyton Manning against the Green Bay secondary and I only have to cover 2 points?

Green Bay has not beaten a team with a winning record yet.

I think the Packers stats are fat because of games with Seattle and Detroit.

They are not running the ball like, well, they should at all. (Granted, the Colts defense has been poor against the run.)

This one is simple - no. 427 Indianapolis COLTS -2 in a great way to nail down a great weekend.