No. 3 Sometimes the phrase I heard on FOX SPORTS Steve Czaben's Radio Show "Run to the Stink" really fits. It comes down to, when everthing points to one team in a big line situation - that you should go with the team that makes no sense.
I don't think that that applies this week with the Seattle / Tampa Bay game this week. The Bucs are hosting a team that has stunk it up their previous two trips to the East Coast, (Wk 1 34-10 loss @ the Bills and Wk 4 44-6 loss @ the Giants. The Seahags are w/o Matt Hasselback this week as well. Seattle's scoring in the 3 non-NFC West games is 33 to 105. That is an avg. defeat of about 33-11.
Seneca Wallace is starting, but dinged up. Jeff Garcia is married to a former Playboy Centerfold. EDGE GARCIA!!!
The Bucs are 4-2 overall and have won the last 5 ats.
I like no. 430 Tampa Bay BUCCANEERS -10.5 over Seattle on Sunday Night.
No. 2 It is not often that I am going to recommend an Over/Under. It will be even less frequently that I recommend it on an NFL Game - but here it is...
First of all - Minnesota is taken off the Banned List this week. I want to use the Bears / Vikings game. The Vikes are 2-4 ats. They have been the luckiest team in football the last two weeks, and while they should have been 0-2, those games went the other way. Adrian Peterson has not been performing as we expected this year - and I just think that Gus Frerrotte isn't the answer. They have few playmakers on offense, and that will catch up with them. Minnesota hasn't scored more than 2 offense TD's in any game this season.
The Bears are playing just their 3rd home game this week. They are 1-1 at home, and 3-2-1 ats overall. Orton is managing the game well - and while Frerrotte isn't really making big plays, I think Orton can.
Now for a quick trend summary. Chicago has been over both home games (and 17 of their last 21 at home - but they have been under all four on the road). Minnesota has been over 3 of 6 games - all on the road.
In this battle of 3-3 teams, we like no. 402 Chicago BEARS -2.5 and parlay the OVER 38 (Buy that 1/2 point if you can - because I think that this is at -3 everywhere.)
No. 1 My wife is a big Colts fan. She will be happy to know that I don't know how anyone can stare at this game and not go - um Peyton Manning against the Green Bay secondary and I only have to cover 2 points?
Green Bay has not beaten a team with a winning record yet.
I think the Packers stats are fat because of games with Seattle and Detroit.
They are not running the ball like, well, they should at all. (Granted, the Colts defense has been poor against the run.)
This one is simple - no. 427 Indianapolis COLTS -2 in a great way to nail down a great weekend.