Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Week 8 - NCAA

Back to the Well Weekend!!!

No. 3 Louisiana Lafayette has been a gold mine this season. They have covered five games in a row since dropping that first game at Southern Miss. The crazy thing for them is that they have only played one home game so far this season. This week is home game number two.

Arkansas St. is not a bad team - for the Sun Belt. They opened the season with a win at aTm, and then scored 83 points against a subdivision opponent.

The Ragin Cajuns have a Sr. QB named Michael Desormeaux who is a fun guy to watch. He makes the offense go. 330 ypg on the ground - 538 ypg overall.

I have three items to mention - first of all - Ark. St's Jr. QB Corey Leonard has thrown 10 TD's with only 2 Ints this season - but 4 of those TD's were in that 83 pt effort against Texas Southern. Secondly, Lafeyette has played at Southern Miss., at the Purple Fraud (Kansas St.), and at Illinois - simply put, they have played a far better schedule. Finally, they have had a recent common opponent in Louisiana Monroe. Arkansas St. beat Monroe by 8 points (last weekend), at home and got 3 TO's from the Warhawks that game. Lafa yette beat Monroe by 9 points, on the road and gave 3 TO's to the Warhawks in their victory.

I will take no. 402 Louisiana Lafayette RAGIN CAJUNS -3 (it may be -4 or even -5 by Saturday night,) and enjoy them getting to 6-1 ats this season.

No. 2 It hasn't been that long ago that I was Locking up a game against the Virginia Cavaliers and picking the perenial doormat of the ACC - Duke to cover. Well how things have changed. Three weekends ago, Maryland looked like they would head to Charlottesville with a Woodshed game in mind. The Terps got their Woodshed game - but they were on the wrong end of it. 31-0 Cavs. QB Marc Verica got things to click in that game, and he got back the Cavs best RB Cedric Peerman. Verica is 50-66 for 446yds an 3 TDs in the last two games. Peerman has 33 rushes for 283 yds and 3 TDs in the last two games as well. The offensive has balance and Al Groh may have saved his job.

North Carolina comes into this game at 5-1. They were on my banned list very recently after a crazy comeback at Miami. Butch Davis is making things happen. They seemed to have settled in on a QB finally since losing starter Tyler Yates for the season. Cam Sexton has performed well as the starter. Notre Dame helped his cause last week with 5 TO's. The week before that - UConn came in to Chapel Hill w/o their starting QB, had 3 TO's and let the Heels block 3 punts. So yes, I see why UNC is favored this game.

I like the Virginia mojo right now. They are at home and North Carolina lost it's best player - do it all Sr. Brandon Tate. His loss will be tough to overcome. Give me no. 356 Virginia CAVALIERS +5 to not only cover, but win this game!

No. 1 For the Saturday Topper - let's head to the northwest, and the Pac 10 more specifically. The team that began this rash of Top 25 Upsets is back in action, as Oregon St. visits Washington. The Huskies are having a disaster of a season at 0-5, where they really had some hope with up and coming dual-threat QB Jake Locker. (Jake reminds me of Scott Frost in how he plays.) The problem now is that Locker is out for the year - and the Huskies may have already checked out.

The Huskies don't run the ball well - and I think that they will need to - to keep the Beavers offense off the field. Former NU Recruit QB Lyle Moevao has really settled in as the starter. Last weekend the Beavers showed they know how to pour it on a lesser team by mashing the Cougars of Wazzu 66-13. (Moevao threw 4 Ints last week and they still scored 66 points!) They are 4-0 ats in their last 4 games. They have a nice balance to the offense with a good RB Jacquizz (yes - that is his name) Rodgers and Sammie Stroughter leading a nice group of WR's.

Lock this one up - we like No. 367 Oregon State BEAVERS -15! (I know this is a big ole line, and I would like to have -13.5, but you won't need to buy this one down!)

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