Saturday, November 22, 2008

NCAA Week 12

3) I don't know why the LSU point spreads make for nice betting opportunities this year - but I think that there is another one this week.

I have heard how Coach Houston Nutt knows how to win at Baton Rouge. I have heard how Ole Miss plays LSU tough and that they have the upset at the Swamp already this season. LSU is coming off the biggest comeback in school history, and fortunately for the Tigers - that comeback didn't fall short. That was the trap game. This is not.

The Tigers haven't exactly been super ats this year. 2-7 overall and 0-6 at home - Ugh!

Both Jevan Sneed for Ole Miss and Jarrett Lee of LSU have been turnover prone this season. They are young QBs that can and do make mistakes.

Statisitically speaking, these teams really mirror each other. Balanced offenses. Decent defenses.

Maybe I am crazy, but what this comes down to for me is simple. LSU has beaten every team it was supposed to beat this year. They are at home, and have some real momentum off of last week. (I am not sure that 59-0 over La.-Monroe doesn't count as momentum, but we shall see.)

Take the Bayou Bengals. LSU -3.5

2) Tennessee is in shambles right now.

They hobble into this game with Vandy off a home loss to Wyoming? Seriously. They have scored 23 points total in the last 3 games. They haven't won a game on the road this year.

Both teams have good defenses - and both have less than stellar offenses.

Vanderbilt has been a pleasant surprise this season. After starting 5-0, they did drop 4 straight. I think that you can excuse two of those losses to Florida and Georgia. Last week they had a nice road win over Kentucky.

Senior day and a chance to beat the home state rival while they are down - I like the Commodores.

Vanderbilt -3.5

Just two this week! Good Luck!!!

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