Saturday, November 15, 2008

NCAA Week 11

4) The smart person in me would suggest that both Michigan and Northwestern should be on my "Banned List." They have done some damage my overall record - and with two of my no. 1 picks none-the-less.

I guess I am a slow learner.

I saw a Michigan team that started to wake up last week and Minnesota looked helpless on offense.

I have no stats to cite for this one. I have no reason to compare the Wildcats and Wolverines vs. the spread, at home, as underdogs - nothing.

This is just a case of one team getting better and one getting worse. Ohio St. beat up Northwestern last week. I expect Michigan to continue the beating.

In an Early Start, take Michigan -3.5

3) Few teams this season have looked as good overall as Texas. They are 7-3 ats this season. That includes 3-1 on the road ats. The average score of their games turns out to be 44-21. They do give up points to good offenses, but it is not via the run game. As Nebraska showed last week, if you control the run game of Kansas - you will beat them. Texas does stop the run.

Todd Reesing is a very good QB, with an OL that is leaving him in bad spots. He is hurting this week. I am sure he will play and play his butt off - but too many more hits and you may see the no. 2 QB for KU.

Kansas gives up almost 400 ypg on defense. They haven't come close to stopping anyone with a good offense, and those two WRs for Colt McCoy are gonna continue the trend.

By the way, I like the OVER 67 in this one too.

In another Early Start, Hook Em Horns. Take Texas -13.5.

2) Robert Griffith has changed the perception of Baylor football this season. It is one of hope, excitement, and yeah - a bit more winning. They have been favored in a few games this season - and have actually taken a couple of teams to the Woodshed. Ironically enough - while they are 3-7 overall, they are 6-3 ats.

The Wrecking Crew defense for aTm is hurting. They are ranked 109th overall. (Sound familiar NU fans?) What puzzles me about the Aggies is how they are not a good running team right now. Their QB Johnson even attempted 51 passes in a game? Has Mike Sherman been chatting with Bill Callahan?

The great stat regarding this game is Baylors +1 per game TO margin. aTm is at -0.4.

Baylor has been waiting to bust out of their difficult schedule. Here is that game.

The Baylor Bears -8 in an afternoon start.

1) The South's Oldest Rivalry is one that most would not guess - but Georgia vs. Auburn is a big one. The Auburn folk's are calling this and the next game against Bama "Amen Corner". Forgive the pun - but they and that horrible offense don't have a prayer.

Georgia is only 3-6 ats this year - but 2-2 on the road.

Auburn is 1-8 ats this year - and just 1-4 at home.

The one thing that Auburn has going for it this season is it's defense has hung in there, ranking 26th in ypg and giving up only 16 ppg.

The same thing I said about the Tigers a couple of weeks ago applies yet today. Kodi Burns is a RB playing QB. He is not a good passer. Auburn has the worst Red Zone offense in College Football.

I have picked on Georgia twice this year - vs. Alabama and Florida. This time, I am going with them.

33 ppg and 437 ypg of offense with the big three they have will be enough this game. Big plays will do in Auburn.

The Georgia Bulldogs will cover -10 in game that may be close for a while. This is an early start too.

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