Thursday, October 30, 2008

NCAA - Week 10

While last week was painful. I can understand Northwestern not hitting based upon losing the TO battle 4-0. But I have no explanation for Rutgers performance! All I know is that the banned list will have a new addition.

Please note - it is always smart to buy up or down those half-points to cover your investment. Don't play the -7's or +3's if you can help it. If you have a sheet - then you are more likely locked in. Do your best with it.

No. 4 We in Nebraska know all too well when a coach loses a team. The press starts to even ask about whether or not the team has "quit". The coaches have to answer that type of question as well.

I see this going on in Auburn with Tommy Tuberville right now.

Last Thursday Night - the first half against West Virginia sorted looked like maybe Auburn had "Circled the Wagons" and found a way to play - but when Auburn was forced to pass - they really couldn't. This team has spent about 3+ years trying to be a West Coast type team - and now they are leaning on a power running game with the hopes of controlling the clock. The Mountaineers figured it out.

As will be mentioned more later, Ole Miss got a big win for Houston Nutt. I also think that they got some confidence. QB Jevon Snead has not been super this year, but he has faced a brutal schedule - and he QB'd that win at the Swamp for the Rebels. A comback win none-the-less.

Snead has kinda rough about throwing Int's this year - 11 so far, and Ole Miss has played a lot of close games. I say no problem this Saturday.

Take the Mississippi Rebels -6 and if you don't know about tailgating and such at Ole Miss - check it out. The sights are nice!

No. 3 The Big 12's battle for the cellar continues this week as 4-4 Colorado visits 3-5 Texas A&M. Kyle Field will be sold out as usual. The 12th Man will be as Loud as usual. I think that they will have much to cheer about this Saturday. aTm is on a bit of an upswing right now - and Colorado is headed the other way.

Third downs have been bad for the Buffs - they are at 38.2% conversions while the Aggies are actually up to 51.8% for the season.

I was impressed by aTm's win at Ames last week. Their offense is starting to get into gear.

Look for Mike Sherman to get a nice home win - and the B12 North to suffer another loss to the South as the Texas A&M Aggies cover the -4. Gig Em.

No. 2 I can't say that I have had the pleasure of attending the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville - but what a great game that is shaping up to be this week. 7-1 Georgia has it's trio of Frosh WR A.J. Green, Soph RB Knowshown Moreno, and Jr. QB Matt Stafford. Florida of course has Do it all WR Percy Harvin, and of course that Tebow guy with his big bronze trophy.

Here is why we like this game. The Dogs have a young OL and FB injury problems. Georgia is 3-4 ats, while Florida is 5-2. Georgia is one of the more heavily penalized teams this year so far. (76-619 yds as compared to 57-442 yds for Florida.) The Gators have 4 Returns for TDs already. Florida has pummeled LSU and Kentucky in the past two weeks by a combined score of 114-26. The average score for the Gators is 42-12.

I see payback for Florida this week. Georgia may not quite be as good as advertized - despite their win at LSU.

Take the Florida Gators -6, and have a gin and tonic for me!

No. 1 Tulsa has been a machine this season. 8-0 overall and 6-1 ats. There average score is 56-26. They run for over 6 yds per carry. The Golden Children have a 32-9 TD to Int rate. They convert 61% on 3rd downs. The stats go on and on.

Last week was a huge game for Bobby Petrino as Houston Nutt returned with Ole Miss and beat the Hogs in Fayetteville. Casey Dick has not been the QB that Arkansas had hoped - of course he has a little different supporting cast then last year. (Losing McFadden and Jones is a lot to replace.)

I smell letdown. (If a 3-5 team really can have a letdown.) I see a team that hasn't scored more than 28 pts in any game (and that happened in the first two weeks this season,) vs. one who hasn't scored less than 37. The Razorbacks give up 32 ppg normally. This may go over the 77 listed - but Tulsa will have the majority.

Take the Tulsa Golden Hurricane -6.5. Let's hope that Petrino doesn't decide to quit if he loses this game too.

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